A report of shipping disruption is not enough to calculate an uplift on every imported item. The commercial effect depends on the actual route, the supplier’s commitments and the point at which the goods are needed.
ONS ship-crossing analysis documented changes around key maritime passages during the early months of 2024. For an estimating team, the useful response was a more specific enquiry.
Ask the supplier to separate manufacturing time from transport time. A single lead-time figure can conceal which part of the delivery is exposed. Confirm whether freight is fixed in the quotation and whether any adjustment mechanism survives acceptance of the order.
| Question | Evidence to request |
|---|---|
| Delivery route | Supplier’s proposed routing |
| Lead time | Manufacture and transport separately |
| Freight exposure | Included, fixed or adjustable |
| Price validity | Expiry and currency basis |
| Site consequence | Storage or programme impact |
A procurement review checklist. No assumed freight increase has been applied.
There may also be a programme cost. A delayed delivery can leave an installation crew without work, while an early order may require off-site storage and another handling operation. Those are different consequences and should be estimated separately.
Avoid applying the same risk twice
If a revised quotation already includes the supplier’s freight allowance, adding a blanket logistics percentage to the full package may count the same exposure again.
Record what is covered and what remains uncertain. Where a decision is still open, price a stated scenario with a clear duration or quantity. That is easier to review than a round percentage justified only by a general reference to market conditions.
The enquiry should tell the estimator which risk has transferred to the supplier and which remains with the project. Without that information, the revised allowance is still a guess.